Bitcoin and Ether before the US open

The night started with a split. BTCUSDT lifted off 76,444 in Asia and closed that stretch at +0.23%, but the net flow was −4,911 BTC, so the buying that pushed the range up was answered by selling. ETHUSDT went the other way, −0.75% into −99,169 ETH of net selling, with 396 Absorptions logged and the buy side carrying them.

Europe reversed the picture between 4:00 AM ET and 7:30 AM ET. BTCUSDT gave back −0.48% on −2,494 BTC of net selling, printing 47 Absorptions with the buy side in front. ETHUSDT closed Europe +0.54%, yet its delta was −8,342 ETH, so the pop came with net selling behind it and 151 Absorptions on the sell side.

So the US session inherits a tape where the last big stretch of each market was sold into. What follows is where price sits now and what each side would need.

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT)

BTCUSDT is at 77,768 after the Asia run from 76,444 to 78,776 and the Europe slip to 77,300. The prior US session covered 79,878 up to 81,954 and closed +0.72%, with 114 Absorptions recorded, sell side up.

Price is in the gap below the day's point of control at 78,000. That zone has 17 touches against it and carries 5.3% of the session's volume, and the biggest footprint there is 37 Absorptions with the sell side ahead. Above it sits the Europe high at 78,200, built from that high with 18 touches, and there the largest mark is 16 Absorptions, sell side. That zone also holds a sell wall of 77.17 BTC at 78,230, 3 times the usual resting size.

Below, the daily VWAP is the near zone at 77,624, 9 touches deep, and its biggest mark is 17 Absorptions, sell side. Under that is the Europe low at 77,300 with 12 touches, where the largest footprint reads 16 Absorptions, sell side.

In the bullish case, a close above 78,000 puts 78,200 next, and past it the prior day's high at 81,954. In the bearish case, a close below 77,624 puts 77,300 next, and past it the week's low at 76,444.

Ether (ETHUSDT)

ETHUSDT is at 2,248, inside the cluster made of the Asia high, the Europe high and the day's point of control, spanning 2,250 to 2,257. That cluster has 23 touches and 13.4% of the session volume, with its biggest mark at 74 Absorptions, sell side, and the next at 62, buy side. The night ran 2,173 to 2,257 in Asia and 2,220 to 2,252 in Europe, and the prior US session held 2,312 to 2,379, closing +0.33% on −46,434 ETH of net selling with 253 Absorptions on the sell side.

The near zone below is the Europe low and the daily VWAP at 2,220 to 2,222, 15 touches and 5.1% of volume, its largest mark 57 Absorptions, sell side. Further down, the day's value area low sits at 2,182 with 2 touches, its biggest mark 4 Stop Runs, sell side. Above, the day's value area high is at 2,297 with 1 touch and a largest mark of 7 Sweeps, sell side; then the prior US session low at 2,312, 8 touches, largest mark 3 Sweeps, buy side.

In the bullish case, a close above 2,260 puts 2,297 next, and past it the prior day's high at 2,379. In the bearish case, a close below 2,247 puts 2,220 to 2,222 next, and past it the week's low at 2,173.

I have both conditions on the board, and the last 15 minutes of a session decide whether either counts. Until one of those closes comes, I'll let price pick a side.

Times are New York time (ET). This is AI-generated analysis of the overnight tape, not financial advice.